Crude oil futures prices are key references in dening prices of 

rened oil products. In fact, because the oil price is one of the 

most important determinant of the price of refined products, they 

are highly correlated and mutually influential:

(1) The spread between the prices of crude futures and oil 

product futures often stays within a narrow range, thus changes 

in crude oil futures prices can lead to changes in prices of rened 

products. As a result, the price expectation of rened oil product 

futures is often set as a premium or discount value against the 

price of crude oil futures.

(2) In places where the price of refined products is determined 

by market forces, the theoretical and futures prices of crude oil can 

be derived from the price of rened products, namely, crude oil 

price = weighted average market price of refined oil products by 

production yield – rening cost or gross profit – taxes.

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